Light! Luck!

Maybe I'm not so deranged:

Let's say you come in with QJs. You flop QJ3. You bet. All fold. You won. Tiny pot. Were you lucky or not? Lucky to catch it, lucky to win, but unlucky not to get paid off? Which matter more? Netlucky, or unlucky?

You flop quads. Can't get luckier, right? Unpaid. Feel lucky now? If the other players have cards that just can't call on any street, no skillful choice of when to bet would have helped. You were just unlucky to have made a monster without any playable opposition cards.

You flop top set, bet all the way, and win a really big pot against three opponents with top pair, second set, etc. Were you lucky? Not lucky to win; top set holding up is the "expected" result, but you were certainly lucky to have opponents who were second best giving you action or caught in the middle.

Is getting KK as a starter lucky? Not if others got AA. Is geting AA lucky? Sure. But it's LUCKIER if others got KK at the same time; that's really lucky. Unless they board a king, of course, in which case it's phenomenally unlucky

Can't be arsed with the Sunday afternoon/evening party games. They're always so shit. Except that time I found a 1/2 player donking up 400NL to the tune of -$1800. That was pretty sweet, except I got nothing (see "luck" above).

So, July is pretty much over and I'm slightly up. I honestly cannot believe how piss poorly I ran at 100NL to end up breakeven over 10K hands. Seriously some ridiculous shit. I know 10K hands is nothing really but to be up and then come down so, so hard is depressing to say the least. And now I'm experiencing some positive variance at 1/2 but I doubt it will last.

olol, played one SSNLHUSNG and lost to a pair of 7's with AJs. Q7o called me down and I check the river instead of pushing, he pushes...and I call with Ace-high o_O Owned the second one pretty fucking hardcore. Guy kept open pushing preflop or open pushing the flop. Of course, in the first couple of hands he folds when I have AKs in the BB. Then I limp K9s and I guess he realised pushing after I limp may not be a good idea. Flop T9xfd, middle pair with flush. He open pushes, I instacall. Turns out he has T2 but I "suckout". That leaves him with t400. He open pushes preflop again the next hand. One trick pony? A few hands I get KK and I limp with it. He decides that's his queue to not push. Flop A35fd, he open pushes and I reluctantly call. 64o no goot. Wow, so I play a 4-way shootout. First hand I get minraised. Second hand I get KQs OTB. 3.5BB raise, call. Flop KTx. Check, t120, call. Turn second club, check, t320, call. River Qs, he pushes, I call. K3 clubs no goot. He pushes next hand for like 3BB. I call with Q8o. 52s makes two pair. Drat. I get Q8o again, fold. I get K8o, limped flop. K9J flop, check, check. I bet blank turn, he pushes for maybe 2BB more. T8o doesn't make a gutshot. Oh, fucking hell. Two pair loses to rivered straight and then AK loses a coinflip in the final. What a fucking waste of time that was. Shootouts are gay. Oh well, I think I'll join one and open push every hand like the rest of these donkeys. Tha's pokah!

Wow, that strategy actually worked better than playing properly. KQs, minraised, I push. JJ calls. Flop Axxfd and I have a flush draw! Turn another Ace. Uh...River, spade. SHIPITHOLLA. One hand donkament. Poker, poker, it's all skill...

Right, enough donking around. Pictures of Keeley make me feel better.

Downloading WSOP episodes and some porn. That's a wrap on the weekend.