Eff Tuesday

I come home and realise that although I downloaded the .nzb for 24 I forgot to enqueue it. I suck. Meanwhile, I read that Fez (FEZ, FFS!) has a) hammered Mandy Moore and JLH + b) has a an inch on me in the trouser department.

+

I, on the other hand, can't do simple (ish) math and have a poor memory. Great.

The consolation, if there is one, is that Fez is known as Fez forevermore and, after his recent expose, he's unlikely to be getting anymore B-list ass, let alone A-list, in the future. Ha!

I play poker. I grind and go nowhere. Need to grind and go nowhere at higher limits & more tables.

Damn

BB 77: PFRer raises more than 10% of my effective stack. SS calls, it's tempting but I fold. Seven on the flop, SS pushes over the cbet, KK calls. Damnit, I would have made my implied odds. I know it's a "good" fold given that I'm not closing the action and not getting good odds since I can't count on getting both their stacks. Still annoying to see I would have made it.

KTs flops the second nut flush + straight flush draw. I raise hard on the flop, not wanting the Ace to draw. Called by two pair. I put him all-in on a blank turn thinking he might have the Ace. He calls, river bricks and MHIG.

BT AJo: Wow, how easy was that? Flop 2h, Jh, 5c, one guy minbets his flush draw, another guy calls his minbet, I raise to pot. One guy check/calls, minbettors both fold. Turn: 7d, total brick. I bet half pot, fish calls. River: Ad. Top two, woot. I value bet 3/4 of pot. Guy calls. MHIG. Easy with position, with a non-scary board.

I run at 260bb/100. Obviously sustainable. Means little but it's nice to have hands actually hold up for a change.

Jumped the gun

So I decided to actually play some poker today. Figured a $2+$2 satellite would be a cheaper way for the poker gods to crush me. Missed the first 10 minutes so found myself with t670 with blinds at 100/200 or something. Oops, rebuy. Did a KillPhil and pushed three hands preflop. KQs won against 99, AQo was uncalled, and finally called all-in with AKs. Lost against TT and KJo with KJo making a straight to bad beat us both.

Looks like I killed the dvd drive I was trying to use with ibook by swapping the jumper while it was powered on. Oops.

Misc.

Underachiving

...is not cutting it anymore.

I watched FD3 which was as expected. I then wasted more time by extracting the good bits of the sunbed scene (Ms. Simmons & Ms. Lowe). And now I have the Chilli's "Rollercoaster" stuck in my head.

A good question would be "why?" I guess I got a little obsessive. I wanted to extract those clips, I knew I could do it (sloppily, as it turns out; -ss is wildly inaccurate), so I worked on it until I had finished.

This is why I fail. It's part of my strategy, I pour effort into trivial pursuits and not into anything worthwhile. Then I bemoan my circumstances. I'm on a 'break' from poker when I need to be building a bankroll but instead I'm watching entertainments.

Interlude: Congrats Schneids. "He took them to valuetown!" is retarded. Having only a third of yourself in the tournament and then taking 1st is a bad beat.

Aside, why am I on a break from poker? Well, I realised that even in a 90/10 situation I still lose, and those losses can string together and wipe me out. That is why one has to be properly bankrolled. True, I was taking shots above my miserable roll but even after dropping down I saw that I could quite easily lose the entire thing through a series of bad beats. It would be unlikely -- assume an average of 60% equity (remember, I play tight-passive so this is not too unreasonable) whenever I push, 0.0001% of losing 10 buyins -- but quite possible. Yes, my roll is down to 10 buyins. I had ~26 and lost maybe 10 with with my shot taking, then I lost more when I dropped down because I couldn't stop the bleeding. Yes, there were a lot of bad beats but there was bad play (tilt) too.

So what can I do? I need an adequate bankroll. Should I stop playing ring and gambool in some tournaments? Should I feed my roll from my day job (FISH!)? I may try a few tourneys but I think I'm going have to suck it up and deposit. If I'm going to be playing high ROR (for my BR) I have to. Ego be damned. What worries me about that is I've deposited more than I think a 'winning player' should. Which of course begs the question...

I don't know. I seem to be getting my money in with great pot equity for the most part. Also, I realise my counterplay at 100NL was deeply flawed. There's a reason to LRR AA/KK. At 25NL I was getting around it by overbetting (because I still got calls from bad players and didn't give good players odds to set mine [of course, bad players still set mined...]). At 100NL I made the mistake of thinking people respect raises more (lol) and would be less inclined to play junk in a raised pot. Dumb I know. So yes, I need to either overbet ($15 raise? Ewww.) or LRR. LRR seems more likely to get a call from worse hands. But then again, semi-frequent overbetting still gets calls from premium hands which I'll be able to determine my equity postflop with pretty accurately.

It's getting late and again I've run away with myself without proviing anything of substance. So, uh, yeah, enjoy "Rollercoaster" clip thing.

DVD-writer fucked or some package broken? "S" at work liar? My life needs to get better and I need to make it happen. Ephiphanies of a post-adolsecent.

Same Bat time...

VAT

VAT @ 17.5% Will be added to the total. Get. Bent. ASDF, if only I'd seen that before I'd committed to buy. Shady fucking cunt. First time I've seen that on ebay but then again I don't buy that much off of it. Here's the item I was going to buy until I saw tekcomputersuk's listed cheaper. Yeah, listed cheaper. Hope he gets syphilis.

Bad Beats

Lot of bad beats today, and I haven't played poker for about a week now.

Airport card is fucked. I can sort of connect to my WAP/router but I can't get an IP address, even if I assign it manually...even if I'm in Linux and not OSX. Macintards repsonses asked me to post screenshots of my network settings and ping commands. Um, thanks but fuck off you mental midgets.

Was going to try just reinstalling Tiger and seeing if that fixed it (although, I doubt it) but then I couldn't get my Tiger DVD to boot over USB. I've done it before (obviously) but had no joy this time. Tried using Open Firmware but that didn't work (I am not 100% sure that I got the commands right).

Meh.

Flushing dreams

Of course, of course. How silly of me to put half my stack in with a set against a flush draw. Money in when I was ahead = $13. Money in when I was behind = $3. Nice implied odds you fraking moran. I don't think I can beat this game.

BSG finale was...interesting. Not too sold on the "one year later" thing. God knows what's happening with the cyclons. Richard Hatch (who was unbelievably great and is hopefully a recurring charatcter) told Roselyn that the cyclons had changed. Um, so why are they invading New Caprica? Six looks pissed at Baltar. Baltar has managed to betray humanity not once but twice, which probably won't look good on his resume. I don't like Adama's mustache much...all the other characters civilian lives are as I thought they might be.

Watched the first 3 episodes of Prison Break. I thought it was going to be a bunch of overhyped shit but it is pretty damn good. I don't know how many seasons it could possibly run for, though. Seems like it could probably only manage 2 at most.

Right, so I quit poker for the day. What happened? I got my money in as a 92% favourite and lost...then I got 50bb in as 66% fav and 12bb as a 77% dog. Meaning today I made one full buyin of Skalansky bucks but in reality lost 164bb. Standard.

Sure

Lose a 92/8 with QQ vs. 99 on a 4c5c5h flop. Unfortunately, Skalansky bucks are accepted at less places than my last debit card...

*Whine* I play NL so as when people make stupid mistakes such as the one above I can win the maximum, not lose. Pretty much twice the exact same scenario has occured. KK/QQ vs. 99 and villain spikes a 9 once all the money is in. I can't win if this shit is rigged in favour of the retards.

Last 6 dvds or so I've burned don't work, which is nice.

I have to do some work work by Monday. I've told them that I'm really not interested in doing it in the future (because I want to wind it down and wind up poker, lols, because poker is so viable for me...see the first paragraph above) and the response was basically "well, I know your not but I'm going to be giving it to anyway". Great.

UPS then flipped and took everything down while I was playing poker/typing this up the first time. Just ordered a new one since it's been fucked for awhile now. cash--.

Oh yeah, and VMWare is going to expire in 6 days or so even though it's a beta. Fine, I'll klutz around with the warezed workstation version and try to get it working on a 2.6 kernel. I mean really, go eat fucking cock, assholes.

And now my head hurts so fucking bad I want to put it through the monitor.

Heh

Some of the advice on 2+2 SSNL is just dire. I know they mean well but come on. Poster advocates not 3betting QQ preflop after I've been minraised by the Button. Instead he thinks the better play is to call for set value. Ehm, no?

Things not going well at work. Tired. Didn't get to play any poker tonight. Meh.

Jackpot!

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em [BBJ table] (10 handed)

Preflop: Heroine is BB with 9♦, 9♥.
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Button calls, SB completes, Heroine checks.

Flop: (6 SB) 9♠, T♣, 9♣ (6 players)
SB checks, Heroine bets, UTG+2 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, Button calls, SB calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) J♣ (3 players)
SB checks, Heroine bets, Button raises, SB folds, Heroine 3-bets, Button calls.

River: (10.50 BB) Q♣ (2 players)
Heroine bets, Button raises, Heroine 3-bets, Button caps, Heroine calls.

Final Pot: 18.50 BB

Results:
Heroine has 9♦ 9♥ (four of a kind, nines).
Button has 7♣ 8♣ (straight flush, queen high).
Outcome: Button wins 18.50 BB.

This is the worst beat ever, do you see why?

So, um, I can never whine about a 4 outer again. Ever.

Passive UV

I was going to compare my Pacific stats to my Party ones but it appears I've been equally bad at both sites, so that's an exercise in futility. Plus the fact that I've been folding AKo tonight for 6-8bb raises doesn't help (of course, the times I fold, it would have connected hard with the flop).

UltraViolet is all kinds of cool and I want to love it but I don't. (I had meant to write a decent review of sorts but I've dwindled away the time. Here's the short version...)

Good: Effects, Milla, Gunkata, Action. Bad: Story, Dialogue, Supporting Cast.

Best line of the film is something like...BadGuy: "What do you think you're doing, Violet? We're the same as you. We're just as fast and just as strong." Violet: "Yeah, but are you 1/10th as pissed off as I am?" She then proceeds to own them bigstyle by pulling their long, girly hair?! Worst line is an attempted joke. Computer scans UV for weapons: "Number of weapons detected...many!" Hah-de-fucking-ha.

Variance: Scene between UV and geeky guy where geeky guy is saying he loves her. Fine, should have cut the last minute. The scene needs to end when he rhetorically asks, "Why do you think I brought you back?" and she touches his face softly. THAT'S IT. We don't need more cumbersome dialogue here, we don't need to beat the audience over the head with the relationship. As the Gorillaz say, "It's there!", now move on.

Technology: Soft as fuck sci-fi. Granted, "any sufficiently advanced..." but this is absurd. I wasn't expecting hard sci-fi here but this is more fantasy than anything else. Some of it looks really, really cool but that needs to be weighed beside suspension of disbelief (if I can't spell anything, it's because I'm rushed/sick/tired/stupid).

Obvious: Comparisons to Aeon Flux are bound to occur, and the long and the short of it is this is the better film. Better effects, better action, better lead (sorry, Charlize, you're beautiful but Milla has the action heroine market cornered), and marginally better story. I guess you could also compare it to Underworld/UW2 and again this probably comes out on top (well, against UW2 it's no contest, UW1 was better than 2...). Why? Milla again. Milla trounces Kate Beckinsale when it comes to kick ass and it's not even funny. Charlize at least gave her a run for her money because her movement was sublime in AF. Still, perfect grace does not a one woman army make.

T&A: Milla makes for great eyecandy too! Gratuitous close up of her ass when she's doing the mood change on her outfit, gets naked early in the pic (sorry, cam I watched was shit but I think this was more a PG-13 naked than anything else). She looks 100% better than in RE2 (digital touch up? better make-up?), practically flawless. In RE2 she looks a little...old.

Critics: They hate it, I can see why. I like it, just about, I enjoyed Equilibirum too, so there you go. It's frivilous fun, try and ignore the dialogue, the fantasy sci-fi and just watch it for the eyecandy and action sequences. They're mindblowing. This is a film to watch on acid.

Also, it appears there's a good 30 mins cut from theatrical release and directors cut. Depending on what was cut, the DE could be awesome. If all they cut was exposition dialogue, can it.

Final: Good, but not great, better than AE, UW2, and EQUI but that's not particularly hard. I will rewatch a better quality version when I get the chance and I don't bother for most things.

Jep

I'm beginning to dread getting AA/KK now. It doesn't matter how much I raise I still get called by shit like JTo...which flops a gutshot...which he pretty much goes all-in with after my c/value bet...then he puts the rest of his stack in when he hits on the turn...which is 1/10th of the pot. Fucksake, talk about play bad, get there. I'm 80/20 on the 2K9r flop.

Damn, talk about a misread. SB ATo: Flops top two but there's a flush draw. I bet and get two callers. Flush comes on the turn, I check/fold and congratulate myself on a nice lay down. Of course, he's turned a crappy two pair.

Faak. Similar situation but with KJo from MP. I try to click the 'bet pot' button but the action switches to me as I do so I end up minbetting. Guy folds anyway. Great.

I forgot to mention my set of Jacks on a AQJ flop and the turn was a Ten.

Sigh, fucking 3 outers all the goddamn fucking time at party. Both times lost to A4 with AQ/AK.

Oops, that's what I get for not paying attention. Just value checked my straight. SOB, I read good.

Heh, I get KK in my last orbit at the table. Guess what the other guy had? Fuck party.

Doomswitch off?

I'm winning pots? WTF. This can't be happening, can it? 78s flops a straight, rivers a flush. Guy wakes up when the backdoor flush gets there. Of course I have a flush too but it's only 8 high. I call and he has some crappy two pair. Earlier I won a large pot when my QQ held up against AKo. Makes a change.

Still substantially down, of course, but getting back to even for the day. When I'll ever get back to even overall after all the bullshit beats (KK, I'm looking at you, fag cowboys) I don't know. It'll take a while...

BSG: Awesome. Richard Hatch as the preacher was amazing. Chief Tyrell's storyline is pretty fucking heavy. When he was beating on Cali it looked like something out of Fight Club. I really like Cali too, I think she's sweet. Baltar's presidential campaign was interesting, not to mention the Caprica SAR mission. The Helo/Sharon relationship looks a little strained, in fact, Sharon looks strained full-stop. I guess losing a baby would do that to you. That whole mission looks pretty fucked, to be honest, but I think Six and the other Sharon are going to save them. Either that or they're all going to get captured first. From the looks of it, they cyclons aren't looking to take them alive, though. Can't wait until the finale, and I really hope they make another season. This one has been truly excellent (although I think the "48 hours earlier..." thing got a little old).

Fucking wasp buzzing around. Hulk smash!

Overset

Jep, that's how good I run. 44 finally hits a set on a monotone flop. Guy bets $3, I raise to $9, planning to push any non-diamond turn. Turn is a Jack and guy puts me all-in. Guess what he had? Jacks of course. 44 = -6.38BB/Hand.

This is just fucking retarded now. I get set mined by an idiot who doesn't understand why his preflop call is bad. Now I flop a set in a raised pot and instead of getting a payday I get oversetted. Fuck you, poker. Seriously.

LRR

Now I recall why I stopped doing this. Having to fold AA on a flush turn in an unraised pot sucks ass (even though I had a redraw to the nut flush). Fuck it, if I win the blinds, I win the blinds I'm open raising from now on. I swear I've made that comment before.

Not really motivated to play poker at all. My big hands will lose and when I make a good hand postflop, I'll get no action. Glad I reread counterplay article, I was playing super sloppily. Now I'm back to playing tight-passive positional aware poker. Of course, my winrate isn't.

Raise big with KK, get a a caller. QJTr flop. I bet $5 into $7, get reraised to $15. Okay, AK man, I believe you. I fold. Very next hand I get dealt the crazy cowboys again. A maniac bets big, I push (unfortunately, I didn't rebuy in time). I flop top set to completely destroy his 66 (66...heh). Someone folded TT :( Oh, did you think I was tilting? I don't get mad anymore. Net of $7 over two hands. Fucksake. I was going to post the first one but I'm pretty confident that I was behind there (C/R for a start). I should have probably checked behind and spiked an Ace for a split (or to destroy his set/two pair). Me and my 'cbetting'.

lolpassive

dannylol.blogspot.com

Hmm, interesting. His style is almost antithetical to my own yet he has $150k+ (lol), and then I figured out that a lot (?) of his winnings come from tourneys. Still something to think about. He's hyperaggressive, almost like a maniac, but seems to be enjoying wild success.

Meanwhile, my own tight-passive 'counterplay' crap is getting me nowhere fast. Although, to be fair, had I been following it religiously I would have lost a bit less...That's about it, however. I think time has come to reevaluate how successful counterplay is and if it is still a winning strategy in the games I'm playing. It is after all 1.5 years old.

"These tactics are designed for tables that have a mix of "ace crackers" and fish where a standard 3-5xBB raise will NOT reduce your competion to 1 or 2 max players, and for tables wehre your competition will make calls that defy drawing odds with their drawing hands." True. "On the river the rules is only to raise if you're prepared to commite all your remaining chips to the hand. Otherwise call, or check and take the hand down." Hmm. "If noone raises you have to look at it [AA/KK] as a drawing hand and hop for trips [sic]." Okay, I don't like LRR or playing AA/KK for set value.

Glad I reread that. Turns out I haven't been passive enough!?! I've been mixing in aggressive play and it's been getting me into trouble. A lot of trouble. Typical line I've been taking with TPTK/two pair: PSB flop, 0.5PSB/PSB turn, 0.5PSB or C/C river. Bad idea! I'm making the pot too big with a crappy hand so that when I get minraised or villain bets pot on the river I feel I have to call.

I think I see one of my problems. TPTK and two pair are shit in a family pot and I've been betting them. In a 3 handed pot, they're good. But, the premise of counterplay is that "Multiple preflop callers with pot sized or 5xBB raises with 'any 2', primarily nut cracking hands - which any hand can be if you have to balls to call a big preflop raise." & "A GROUP of nut crackers can crack nuts more often than not." & "1/2 to pot sized bets only eliminate the nut cracking hands that lost potential. The one's on a draw stay in." That's it! The players haven't changed, but I have. I would argue that some of the games I've been playing aren't the way he's described. I need to be aiming for 0 aggression.

Just did it there. Dealt A8s in newbie blind. Flop pair of Aces and a flush draw. Do I bet? No I check it all the way down. MHIG and I win a small pot. Next hand, I call a raise with AKo, miss flop so I check fold. Easy! I know to non-believers that sounds fishy as hell but I think he's on to a good thing.

I am not entirely convinced it is viable at Party and/or at higher limits. Optimal TAG play seems to be the standard there. I will have to experiment.

And there we go. BB QQ: I raise to >10% of my stack. SS calls (about a 1/4 of his). Jack-high two heart flop, I put SS all-in. He calls with A2s on the flush draw. Equity check: 57/43. Fine by me. I'd have played exactly the same way if I could have seen his cards (well, I would have preferred more money in preflop where my equity is 68/32 but whatever). Someone asks me "how mad are you?" and I'm glad that I can truthfully say "not at all". Skalanksys won that hand: $7.45 less rake. Real money lost: $12.45.

Then I get a little too weak perhaps with AKo OOP. Small pot, small hand, small mistake.

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Before I reread that, I had considered that perhaps I should write a perl/shell script that 1) parses HH (obviously) 2) extracts and stores a metric boatload of stats that PT doesn't with the intention of 3) modeling players behaviour in real time.

What would that actually accomplish? Well, it would draw on past statistics about how villains played hands and then present likely holdings given their current actions. Like PT stats but better. It might be worth doing purely as a poker learning experience.

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mmmm